some
simple covid math [1]
by s. uriv
will sheltering and lockdown make all viri
go away, or
will viri come back again in just some
other way?
will not continued risk bequest the
uninfected path?
will lockdowns ever end?
some simple covid math
______________________________
these are just thoughts… written as a layman, based upon the news i’ve
seen (which, admittedly) is limited.
1.
if covid-19 is less harmful than the flu to the average person, yet
more harmful to those who are aged and/or immunocompromised… then the key
should be to protect those at risk (through extreme social
isolation).
a.
…but… will “sheltering in place” and “lockdowns” make the virus go
away? no.
b.
will it make the aged any younger?
no.
c.
will sheltering boost the immune systems of the
immunocompromised? no.
d.
will it make the aged & immunocompromised immune? no.
i. …so… when
those at-risk are (eventually) exposed, they are going to be in the same boat.
ii. it seems as though the
aged and immunocompromised are going to be at-risk for viri until (1) we
produce vaccines that work, and/or (2) the virus goes away.
2.
aren’t the aged and the immunocompromised still going to still be at
risk for the next virus? …and the
subsequent one? yes. they are.
3.
if we were to “lock down” the country for 2-3 weeks… would the virus
“go away”? would the flu go away? i’m not sure about covid-19, but lockdowns
(i’d wager) won’t kill all viri.
i don’t get the math on this.
seems to me that everyone
should get out there and get the virus, and/or take whatever
precautions that he/she deems necessary to avoid the virus (e.g. washing hands,
distancing, sheltering). the
immunocompromised need to be more diligent!
in the meantime, make more
masks, make more ventilators, and recognize that people are going to get sick,
and (some) are going to die – just like they would if they got the flu.
i might be one of those people
who has a lung issue from childhood that might respond the wrong way. i’m over 60, so i’m more at risk. i would need to take all of that into
consideration. still, i’d rather be on
the exposed/recovered team than the uninfected team.
truth is, we don’t know who is
going to get sick. we don’t know who is
going to get really sick, and who is going to get really, really
sick.
protect your grandparents and
your asthmatics and your smokers. maybe
those groups should be the ones who are sheltering at home, for their own sake.
(more to follow as we find out more)
_________________________
[1] martino, j. (3.24-2.2020). some simple covid math. book 88: marching
into madness. © 2020 by wellnesseducation.us.
